Cheaper loans in the horizon as UAE lowers interest rates

Consumers in the UAE can look forward to further drops in their mortgages as the UAE Central Bank dropped its key rate last week.

On Thursday, the central bank lowered the base rate applicable to the overnight deposit facility (ODF) by 25 basis points from 4.90 per cent to 4.65 per cent, effective from Friday, November 8. This followed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 to 4.75 per cent. In a statement, the Fed said the decision is based on general improvement in labour conditions, growth in the economy and lower inflation. The UAE follows US monetary policy as the UAE dirham is pegged to the US dollar.

With lower rates, loans will get cheaper. Thus, people seeking mortgages to buy homes, automobiles or even personal loans can look forward to lower monthly payments, analysts said.

Gold prices surged over 1.7 per cent after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point interest rate cut. “While the market had largely priced in this move, the Fed’s acknowledgment of economic uncertainty and balanced risks bolstered gold’s safe-haven appeal,” Mohamed Hashad, chief market strategist, Noor Capital, said in a note.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions significantly impact gold prices. Lower interest rates typically weaken the US dollar and boost demand for gold as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Conversely, higher interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal. “A break above $2,700 could target the 20-day SMA [simple moving average] at $2,716 and potentially reach $2,750,” Hashad wrote.

In additions, Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections is likely to boost the region’s economy, analysts say. “Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports might strengthen the US dollar through reduced spending on foreign goods, benefiting GCC currencies like the Saudi riyal or the UAE dirham. A stronger dollar from Trump’s protectionist policies would also increase foreign investment in the GCC region,” said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial.

Moreover, with Gulf countries are actively working on improving their non-oil economy, with the UAE’s non-oil sector expected to grow 5.2 per cent in 2024 and Saudi Arabia showcasing a non-oil sector growth of 4.2 per cent YoY, sectors are likely to witness growth.

Additionally, since Trump is pro-fossil fuel, he would focus on improving the US energy market by increasing US oil production. “His hardline stance on certain geopolitical issues might increase the risk premium in oil. So, the overall impact in the medium term is likely to be muted for the commodity,” Valecha said.

Financial markets reacted by extending popular “Trump trades” – pushing up bond yields, the US dollar and equity futures – as investors assign higher odds of Trump turning policy proposals into reality. “Full implementation of Trump’s far-reaching tariff proposal will leave no winners in a world of heightened trade uncertainty and protectionism,” Guy Stear, head of developed markets Strategy at Amundi, wrote in a whitepaper. US equities will be buffeted by conflicting forces, but deregulation and industrial policies under Trump 2.0 will likely benefit sectors such as banks and small/mid-caps, he added.